In yesterday's post, I proposed that the Wild's record likely won't hold up because they had such a discrepancy in play and win percentage against good vs bad teams.
Today, I thought I would put things into context a little more. I looked at a few stats for each of the teams across the league and thought I'd do a quick hit with some teams that stood out.
1. ST LOUIS: 0.804
2. COLORADO: 0.773
3. SAN JOSE: 0.761
4. CHICAGO: 0.760
5. BOSTON: 0.708
These are the teams that have the highest win percentage. No surprise.
1. BUFFALO: 0.220
2. EDMONTON: 0.320
3. FLORIDA: 0.380
4. NY ISLANDERS: 0.396
5. CALGARY: 0.435
Again, the teams that have the lowest win percentage.
1. WINNIPEG: 81% vs Good
2. BUFFALO: 76% vs Good
3. CAROLINA: 75% vs Good
4. CALGARY: 74% vs Good
5. COLORADO: 73% vs Good
These teams played most of their games against teams with a winning record. Outside of Colorado, these teams are pretty bad. Interesting.
1. PHILADELPHIA: 39% vs Good
2. DETROIT: 44% vs Good
3. PITTSBURGH: 44% vs Good
4. LOS ANGELES: 48% vs Good
5. WASHINGTON: 50% vs Good
Another interesting bit. Of these teams, only Los Angeles is one of the best in the league. Also, for as bad as Philly's start was, they have had the weakest schedule. Yikes.
Highest Win % vs Good Teams:
1. COLORADO: 0.813
2. ST LOUIS: 0.733
3. LOS ANGELES: 0.708
4. BOSTON: 0.692
5. SAN JOSE: 0.679
Five of the top six teams in the league are winning against good teams. Maybe the only surprise is that Colorado is part of the mix, as they seem to have been pegged as overachievers. Maybe they are the real deal?
Lowest Win % vs Good Teams:
1. PHILADELPHIA: 0.111
2. EDMONTON: 0.125
3. BUFFALO: 0.184
4. COLUMBUS: 0.321
5. CALGARY: 0.324
These teams are all pretty terrible, so not surprising that they can't beat good teams.
Highest Win % vs Bad Teams:
1. MINNESOTA: 0.955
2. CHICAGO: 0.955
3. ST LOUIS: 0.938
4. WINNIPEG: 0.900
5. SAN JOSE: 0.889
There's Minnesota, but also Chicago. Maybe this is a good stat because these are the games you are supposed to win? But look at Winnipeg, they aren't good...right?
Lowest Win % vs Bad Teams:
1. FLORIDA: 0.250
2. BUFFALO: 0.333
3. NY ISLANDERS: 0.364
4. NEW JERSEY: 0.364
5. OTTAWA: 0.450
These teams are all pretty bad.
Highest Difference b/w Good and Bad:
1. PHILADELPHIA: 0.603 (0.714 - 0.111)
2. EDMONTON: 0.542 (0.667 - 0.125)
3. WINNIPEG: 0.495 (0.900 - 0.405)
4. MINNESOTA: 0.490 (0.955 - 0.464)
5. VANCOUVER: 0.475 (0.850 - 0.375)
Only one of these teams is in the playoff mix (Minnesota).
Lowest Difference b/w Good and Bad:
1. NEW JERSEY: -0.213 (0.364 - 0.577)
2. FLORIDA: -0.191 (0.250 - 0.441)
3. COLORADO: -0.146 (0.667 - 0.813)
4. NASHVILLE: -0.063 (0.500 - 0.563)
5. NY ISLANDERS: -0.059 (0.364 - 0.423)
Again, only one of these teams is in the playoff mix, and that's Colorado.
So if we look at some of the results from this point in the season, Minnesota does stick out as a team that is beating up on bad teams and losing to good teams. I haven't broken down the rest of the numbers, but the Wild will have to pick it up against strong competition if they want to have any chance in the post-season.
The two biggest surprises for me were Colorado and Winnipeg. Colorado is winning not just against bad teams but good ones as well. They've also had a pretty tough schedule, so they aren't just facing easy competition. If they can sustain it, maybe they will be a dark horse to make a deep playoff run. Winnipeg seems to have drawn a really tough early schedule, but some of their numbers indicate that they should improve once they face some weaker opponents. It might be too late, but it will be interesting to see what happens.