How Much Of A Gamble Is Trading For Zach Parise & Ryan Suter's Negotiating Rights?

One of the surprising things from last weekend's NHL Draft were reports that neither New Jersey GM Lou Lamoriello and Nashville General Manager David Poile were approached about the rights negotiating to their prized free agents-to-be, Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, respectively. It's possible both are lying or that in the case of Lamoriello no one wants to bring on his wrath. They need to hold their cards close to their vest and hope that they still have a chance to re-sign priority number nineortwenty.

Then again, it isn't even like Poile is inexperienced with trading away negotiating rights. Or that this was a draft where Garth Snow thought Ryan Murray was the second coming of Ricky Williams.

However, saying yes they are open to trading rights would kill that chance of not having to compete with 29 other teams and hurt any leverage with trade negotiations (if that so happens). So dealing with this "hypothetical" situation where Minnesota's aggressive nature for Parise and Suter at all costs or that they pay $9-10 million for Parise per year and over $100 million total would have them asking for the negotiating rights, how effective would that be? How much would they be looking at to part?

There aren't many examples over the past four years of teams trading the negotiating rights of a player but there are enough where it's worth noting the gamble pays off about half the time.

-Minnesota traded Brian Rolston's rights to Tampa Bay for a 4th round pick in 2008 two days before free agency. The Lightning failed to sign Rolston.Oddly enough, the Wild ended up trading the pick to Edmonton as part of the Brodziak deal.

-Jay Bouwmeester was traded to the Flames by Florida at the 2009 Draft for the negotiating rights to fellow UFA Jordan Leopold, who signed with Florida and a 3rd round pick. He signed with Calgary.>

-Dan Hamhuis had his rights traded to Philadelphia by Nashville on June 19th, 2010 for the rights to RFA Ryan Parent and a conditional pick in the 2011 NHL Draft. The Flyers didn't sign him and then traded his rights a week later to Pittsburgh for a third round pick in 2011 (see the next one). The Penguins failed to sign Hamhuis.

-Ilya Bryzgalov's rights were traded on June 6, 2011 to the Flyers for the UFA rights to AHLer Matt Clackson, future considerations and  a third round pick provided he signed with Philadelphia before the Draft. He did two weeks later for the good of the universe. Oddly enough, the pick sent back was the unconditional one Philadelphia received from Pittsburgh for Hamhuis.

-James Wisniewski had his rights traded to Columbus two days before free agency last year for a seventh-round pick in 2012 that would become a fifth rounder if he signed with the Blue Jackets. He did.

-Christian Ehrhoff had his rights traded from Vancouver to the New York Islanders three days before free agency last year for a fourth round pick in 2012. They failed to sign him and then traded Ehrhoff's rights the next day to Buffalo, who signed him to a 10 year, $40 million deal the day before free agency, for their 2012 fourth round pick.

From these few examples there were few "top" free agents whose rights were traded. Jay Bouwmeester is the only player who was a big name from his free agent class and most were somewhere in the second tier. That fact hurts Minnesota and their intentions to "hypothetically" trade for one of the top two. It's also cheaper the closer to July 1 the trade is with the same success rate (albeit a lower sample size) with the average pick being an unconditional fourth or fifth rounder. The Wild would likely have to pony up a little more given that it's Suter and Parise - they do own San Jose and New Jersey's third round picks next year in lieu of their own (it was traded to Philadelphia for Darroll Powe and precludes them from lower level RFA signings) - but nothing as preposterous as trading one of their own RFAs or a NHL player.

Of course, this all hinges on New Jersey, who has never traded the rights of one of their free agents and let notables like Scott Niedermayer, Brian Rafalski, Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez walk, and Nashville to be open to the possibility.

So in the end is it worth it? There are worse gambles.